Forget the OPEC decision, the leader of ISIS, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, has set the ISIS sights on Saudi Arabia. The birthplace of Islam. And worryingly, the the world's largest oil producer and exporter. al-Baghdadi does not refer to Saudi Arabia as Saudi Arabia, as this name derived from the ruling tribe, the al-Saud, whose authority ISIS will not acknowledge.
ISIS calls Saudi Arabia "the land of Haramayn", the land of the two holy places. He's referring to Mecca and Medina. Calling out to ISIS's increasing band of Saudi followers, ISIS sets out a target list for attack. He starts out pointing to the Shia who are a small number of Saudi nationals, inhabiting the oil-rich Eastern Province, and whom hardline Salafi radicals view as heretics.
Deep sectarian divisions in the Middle East mean that many Saudis view ISIS not as a crazy band of terrorists but as holy and strong defenders of Sunni Islam against the threatening forces of Iran and its Shia allies.
Despite the efforts by the US-led team, ISIS is still powering along. That is the bad message US politicians are hearing from a man in the know. The Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moualem. "All the indications say that (Islamic State) today, after two months of coalition air strikes, is not weaker," Walid al-Moualem emphasized, contrasting the US 'coalition' military efforts with a Russian call for restarting the political process between Damascus and 'the constructive Syrian opposition'.
What would happen if ISIS made it into Saudi Arabia? ISIS already has a presence in the Saudi armed forces and the Saudi regime is hated amongst the ordinary Saudi population. Thousands of normal Saudis would welcome ISIS and likely also join them. The Saudi regime would send the Saudi National Guards out to defend the regime's interests. This would have Saudis facing off against against one another, but would the Saudi National Guard behave the same way as the Iraqi army? Either joining ISIS or just deserting? The Kingdom would likely then turn to its only ally: Pakistan and hope the Pakistan government sends the army to protect the House of Saud protect it.
If these two developments happened, there is one hell of a mess coming. ISIS is full of mercenaries from all over the world. Afghanistan, Algeria Chechnya, Jordan, Pakistan, Tunisia. Saudi National Guards who remained loyal to the regime and the Pakistan army would be up against battled-hardened mercenaries of the ISIS, ordinary Saudis and breakaway elements from the Saudi armed forces. No matter the winner, the House of Saud will not survive this end game.
Why do we care about Saudi Arabia? They love camels and taking dumps on celebrities for money. The answers revolve around the one thing that the scorching desert holds more of than any other piece of land on Earth: oil.
The disruption to oil prices will be enormous if ISIS got control of Saudi Arabia or even damaged Saudi oil infrastucture as the Saudi's have 16% of the world's oil reserves. With their hostile takeover of much of Iraq, the maniac group known as ISIS or IS or maybe ISIL are already in control of a small portion of the 5th largest reserve in the world. If they could successfully overrun Saudi Arabia, they could have have 20% or more.
Saudi Arabia is the dominant factor in what is arguably the world's biggest and most important industry. If ISIS controls the vast Saudi petroleum reserves, they can dictate the world oil prices and hold a firm grip on the way the world behaves from Tokyo to Tanzania, from Portland to Perth.
America, whose shale drillers faltered long before the energy independence goal was achieved, stand nearly as vulnerable to the vagaries of Middle East oil politics as they ever have. This time they might be rooting for the terrorists to save their skin. The harsh reality is, unless someone is willing to go onto the ground with force and carry out a war of extermination, ISIS will survive and likely thrive. Soon taking Saudi Arabia.
For American energy companies, the fall of Saudi Arabia to ISIS might just be what they are hoping for.